A Double Position: Activision
I don’t intend to commit many posts to stock pitches (I’d rather explain at a higher level), but this is a bit of a special case. Normally I keep my positions equal under the general idea that if my confidence in a company is lacking enough that I think it deserves a smaller portion of my portfolio than my others, I should be looking for a different company altogether. However, as is often the case in investing, I’ve made an exception.
I have exceptional confidence in Activison following its merger with Vivendi Games. To quote myself, as quoted by a related Fool Article (I can fit self-appraisal anywhere) on the merger news:
Activision and Blizzard together make the strongest gaming power house in the world, by a huge margin. Both companies (though Blizzard especially) have set out to revolutionize the way the world sees video games and both have experienced tremendous growth as a result. …
This industry is still quite small (I know plenty that would disagree; they’re wrong), and Blizzard is far and away the most positioned to capitalize on it just as it has in the past. Activision is a bit behind, but it’s much closer than anyone else. Combined, they are absolutely untouchable.
Though sparse on the details (that’s for a later date), it does convey my complete conviction that this company is worth several times what it is trading at. I’m willing to bet bigger than usual on that. Following my previous logic though, that suggests my confidence in my other holdings is lacking enough that they shouldn’t be holdings.
Well, sort of. I could sell them and try to find more companies I am equally confident in, but I don’t expect that to happen anytime soon and they are certainly much better off than the equivalent capital in cash. Alternatively, I could dump them and put 100% into ATVI, but that’s taking on risk I’d rather avoid for reasons complicated enough for their own post. So I did a little of both and doubled my ATVI position. I have no fancy formulas for increasing it the amount I did, it’s just a nice number and I didn’t want to put more than 25% of my portfolio in a single company, even being as confident as I am.
The rest remain holdings of reduced size (relative to ATVI) because I have not found anything better yet. Simply put, it’s just the best I can do for now.
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[...] Bottom Line: Their growth prospects make it worth an easy $40 billion on current earnings (after combining Blizzard). In five years I would be really surprised to see anything less than a $100 billion market cap on $2.5b in earnings. Considering it is now trading for a mere $16b (add $8b for Blizzard), it should be clear why I have a double position in Activision. [...]